In a post entitled “America is now one big bet on AI”, Ruchir Sharma writes that “AI companies have accounted for 80 per cent of the gains in US stocks so far in 2025.” In fact, more than a fifth of the entire S&P 500 market cap is now just three companies — Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple — two of which are basically big bets on AI.
Now as Jason Furman points out, this doesn’t necessarily mean that without AI, the U.S. economy would be stalling out. If the economy wasn’t pouring resources into AI, it might be pouring them into something else, spurring growth that was almost as fast as what we actually saw. But it’s also possible that without AI, America would be crashing from tariffs.
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